Europe has spent the last four years almost entirely focused on its eastern frontier. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brought NATO back to its original purpose, increased defence expenditure across the continent and forced European governments to think seriously about military security after decades of relative complacency. While Europe continues to look east, however, a very different strategic architecture is developing to its south.

The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement (Mecca Pact) signed on 7th August by Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan deserves considerably more European attention and concern than it has received. The agreement establishes that an attack against one of the three countries will be considered an attack against all. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has himself compared the principle to NATO’s Article 5. The agreement also provides for regular meetings between foreign and defence ministers and a permanent secretariat in Saudi Arabia as well as efforts to get Egypt to join the alliance.

The three countries bring very different strengths to the alliance. Saudi Arabia has enormous financial resources and influence across the Islamic world. Pakistan has one of the largest armed forces in Asia and is the only Muslim nuclear power. Turkey has the second-largest army in NATO, an increasingly sophisticated defence industry and, most importantly for Europe, geography.

Turkey is not a distant Middle Eastern power. It borders Greece and Bulgaria, controls the Bosphorus and Dardanelles and has established an increasingly important military presence in Syria and Libya. It is also involved in a long-running dispute with Greece and Cyprus over maritime boundaries, territorial waters and economic zones in the Eastern Mediterranean.

The Mecca Pact therefore cannot be viewed only in the context of the Middle East or the recent war with Iran. Its importance for Europe comes principally from Turkey.

For President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the agreement fits into a foreign policy pursued consistently for more than a decade. Turkey does not want to abandon NATO, but neither does it want its foreign policy determined by NATO. It wants to remain inside the Western alliance while simultaneously building an independent sphere of political, economic and military influence.

This policy has often appeared contradictory to Europeans. Turkey purchased the Russian S-400 air defence system while remaining a member of NATO. It has supported Ukraine while keeping channels with Moscow open. It has negotiated migration agreements with the European Union while repeatedly confronting Greece and Cyprus. It intervened militarily in Libya and Syria without waiting for a European or American consensus.

There is little contradiction in any of this from Ankara’s perspective. Turkey follows Turkish interests.

The Mecca Pact considerably expands the possibilities available to Erdoğan. Saudi........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)