1. Launching a war against Iran was a mistake, at this moment and under these circumstances. Even the assassination of Khamenei, an arch-terrorist who deserves death, was strategically wrong at this stage.

2. Iran was already at a point of internal weakness: a collapsing economy, a regime that had recently killed tens of thousands of its own citizens during protests, and global public opinion largely against it. Netanyahu and Trump played directly into Tehran’s hands.

3. But once the war has begun, it must be finished — otherwise we will face the same confrontation again within months.

4. “Finishing the job” does not mean regime change. It means ensuring that Iran no longer has the capability to launch ballistic missiles at its neighbors or to fund and arm its regional militias such as Hezbollah and the Houthis. If that capability remains intact, Israel, regional states, and American bases will remain under constant threat.

5. If Iran loses its ballistic missile capability, the regime’s sense of security will collapse, and that could give Iran’s internal opposition the confidence it currently lacks.

6. For now, Iran appears to be stretching its missile arsenal as far as possible. Drones are plentiful, but ballistic missiles are limited. Even under the most optimistic scenario for Tehran, its missile stockpile will not last more than about a month.

7. Iran likely entered the war with roughly 2,000–2,500 ballistic missiles. Some have already been destroyed in airstrikes. At best they may now have around 1,000–1,300 remaining. Launchers are also being targeted each time they fire.

8. Iran’s current strategy seems clear: inflict enough damage on Israel and regional states to create pressure on Washington to stop the war.

9. Another likely tactic is to exhaust Israel’s air defense systems. If interception capacity declines, missile penetration will increase and damage will rise significantly. Something similar happened during the 12-day confrontation, when after about a week the damage to Israel’s home front reportedly pushed Netanyahu to urge Trump to halt the fighting.

10. The Houthis may also be waiting for precisely that moment, when Israeli air defenses are stretched, before joining the fight. Their arsenal is limited, so they want every strike to count.

11. This raises two critical questions: how much political and economic pressure can Trump absorb, and how much damage can Israel absorb at home? Netanyahu’s political objective in this war was to be able to go into elections with the message that he eliminated the region’s most dangerous enemies — Khamenei, Nasrallah, Assad, and Sinwar. A message like that could easily win him another term.

12. But that also creates a paradox. Without Iran as a looming threat, Netanyahu loses his central political narrative. Nationalist leaders rarely win elections without a clear enemy. In that sense, he has limited incentive to truly “finish the job.”

13. The most serious damage from this war may not be military or economic. It may be Israel’s legitimacy in the US.

Israel’s standing in American public opinion is deteriorating rapidly. And Israel’s international power ultimately rests on American support. The surge in antisemitism and the growing narrative that Israel dragged the United States into war, amplified by conspiracy theories such as Epstein and his ring of powerful people could be beyond repair.

14. Trump also cannot stop the war immediately. Ending it in less than 12 days would look like failure.

15. In the short term, minimizing damage means ending the war as quickly as possible. But strategically, once the war began the damage was already done.

16. That leaves only one sensible choice: complete the mission, whatever the cost, and then rebuild. Otherwise the region will face another round of war within a year.

17. One final point concerns the American public debate. Trump and his people are barely mentioning the most compelling reasons for confronting Iran. There are several arguments that resonate far more clearly with American and international audiences:

Iran is part of a dangerous China-led strategic axis that includes Russia, Venezuela, and North Korea.

Iran supplied more than 50,000 drones to Russia in its war against Ukraine, contributing to the deaths of thousands.

Millions of Iranians have fled the regime because of violence and executions.

The regime has recently killed tens of thousands of its own citizens during protests.

For nearly half a century, Iran has financed and directed terrorism around the world.Those arguments are far more persuasive than the simplistic claim that “Israel attacked, so we had to attack too.”

Starting the war in Iran was a mistake. But once started – you better finish the job.

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)