The current war in Iran has spilled into Lebanon, much to Iran’s satisfaction.

Hezbollah, a creation of Iran and Iran’s chief proxy in the Middle East, is dragging Lebanon into a war yet again, despite having  assured the Lebanese government that it would not intervene on behalf of Iran if U.S. and Israeli strikes remained “limited.”

Three days before the United States and Israel went to war with Iran on February 28, Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem told the Lebanese authorities that Hezbollah’s assurance hinged on whether Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was spared and the Iranian regime was not targeted.

With the joint U.S. and Israeli assassination of Khamenei, and with calls by U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for regime change in Tehran, Hezbollah threw caution to the wind and opened a new front in the Iran war.

In the early hours of March 1, Hezbollah fired a token number of rockets and drones at northern Israel in retaliation for the killing of Khamenei. Since then, Hezbollah has targeted Tel Aviv.

A senior Hezbollah official, Mahmoud Qamati, told the Associated Press on March 3 that Israel “wanted an open war … so let it be an open war.”

With these attacks, Hezbollah has shattered the fragile ceasefire in Lebanon that the United States and France brokered in November 2024. Under its provisions, Israel would withdraw from southern Lebanon and Hezbollah would disarm.

The truce ended Israel’s two-month military campaign in Lebanon, which was aimed at degrading Hezbollah’s capabilities and driving it north of the Litani River, a distance of about 30 kilometers from the Israeli border.

Neither Israel nor Hezbollah fully observed the ceasefire. Suspicious of Hezbollah’s intentions, Israel established five outposts in southern Lebanon after its withdrawal. Hezbollah violated the truce by rebuilding itself and firing on Israeli forces.

In the face of growing tensions, Israel threatened to carry out another invasion of southern Lebanon, saying it had the approval of the Trump administration. In the meantime, Israel conducted near-daily air strikes against Hezbollah throughout Lebanon. These raids claimed the lives of about 400 of its foot soldiers and commanders.

Having been seriously degraded by Israel, Hezbollah remained on the sidelines during the 12-day war between Israel, the United States and Iran in June 2025. While its leadership vocally supported Iran, Hezbollah refrained from launching a single rocket or mortar because neither Israel nor the United States tried to topple the Iranian regime.

From that point onward, Hezbollah consistently held its fire.

This year, with the prospect of an Israeli or U.S. attack on Iran looming on the horizon, Israel warned Lebanon that it would retaliate if Hezbollah initiated hostilities. The Lebanese foreign minister, Youssef Raggi, issued a similar warning. As he said, “There are signs that the Israelis could strike very hard in the event of an escalation.”

Reacting to Hezbollah’s latest rocket and drone launches, Israel struck Hezbollah sites on March 1. On March 3, Israeli troops crossed into southern Lebanon to “hold additional dominant terrain in Lebanon and defend the border communities from there,” Defence Minister Israel Katz said.

It remains to be seen whether Israel will launch a fullscale invasion.

Katz, in a post on X, said that Qassem is now “a marked target for elimination” and would be sent to “the depths of hell” like Khamenei. “We will strike Hezbollah hard, and Qassem will discover that whoever follows Khamenei’s path ends up like Khamenei.”

The commander of the Israeli armed forces, General Eyal Zamir, said that Israel will not halt its new offensive until “the threat” poised by Hezbollah” is removed.” He added, “The Lebanese government and the Lebanese army have been warned many times to disarm Hezbollah — they did not act. We will end the campaign not only with Iran harmed, but with Hezbollah also sustaining a very severe blow.”

Effie Defrin, the Israel Defence Force spokesman, said that Israel intended to create a buffer zone to protect residents close to the Lebanese border.

The latest developments come as no surprise. Israel and Hezbollah effectively have been at war for the past two-and-a-half years.

Hezbollah, which is ideologically aligned with Iran, began firing rockets and mortars at Israeli communities and army bases in the Galilee on October 8, 2023, a day after Hamas’ one-day invasion of Israel on October 7. Hezbollah’s gesture of solidarity with Hamas was seen as reckless and dangerous by many observers.

This was the second time since 2006 that Hezbollah had pulled Lebanon into a war.

Fearing that Hezbollah’s Radwan Force might invade Israel, the Israeli government evacuated 60,000 Israelis from border communities. Some of these evacuees have yet to return to their homes.

Israel responded to Hezbollah’s aggression with daily air raids and artillery fire. These clashes degenerated into a grinding war of attrition.

In September 2024, Israel assassinated Hezbollah’s secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah. A month later, Israel invaded southern Lebanon with the intention of dismantling Hezbollah’s military infrastructure and destroying its web of tunnels, some of which extended into Israeli territory.

During its invasion, Israel killed nearly all of Hezbollah’s senior commanders and 45 percent of its fighters. Israel also destroyed much of its weapons stockpiles, greatly weakening Hezbollah.

Hezbollah, a potent political force in Lebanon, was further weakened by the formation of a new Lebanese government, which was willing to challenge it.

The fall of Hezbollah’s ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and Lebanon’s crackdown on the smuggling of weapons through its ports, diminished Hezbollah as well.

Several months ago, President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam vowed to disarm Hezbollah under the terms of  United Nations resolution 1701, which was passed following Israel’s 2006 war with Hezbollah

Denigrating their announcement as “an Israeli-American plan,” Qassem said it was not in Lebanon’s “best interests” to abide by it.

Early in January, Lebanon proclaimed that the first phase of Hezbollah’s disarmament had been completed in southern Lebanon. The Lebanese Army claimed it had taken operational control of areas south of the Litani River.

Israel dismissed these claims as “far from sufficient” and accused Hezbollah of conspiring to rearm. The Israeli Foreign Ministry charged that “extensive Hezbollah military infrastructure” remained in southern Lebanon despite Lebanese efforts to uproot it. Netanyahu said that Hezbollah must be “fully disarmed.”

Last month, Lebanon announced that the second phase of its plan to disarm Hezbollah north of the Litani would be activated by the Lebanese army. Qassem rejected it on the grounds that it “serves the goals of Israeli aggression.”

Hezbollah’s position should be viewed from the perspective of its close alliance with Iran within the Axis of Resistance.

“Hezbollah has been increasingly micromanaged by Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps officers, particularly since Nasrallah was killed, and the decision to attack Israel was clearly made in Tehran,” says Paul Salem, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute.

In the past few days, Hezbollah has renewed its war with Israel by launching rockets and drones. Hezbollah has targeted a missile defence site in Haifa, an air traffic control base on Mount Meron, the Ramat David air force base, and an army base in the Golan Heights.

Israel has retaliated by striking dozens of Hezbollah sites across Lebanon, including 50 Shi’a villages. Strikes in Beirut’s southern suburbs killed Hussein Mekeld, a top-ranking official in Hezbollah’s intelligence department, and possibly Mohammad Raad, a parliamentarian associated with Hezbollah.

Since then, Israel has bombed the studios of Hezbollah’s television and radio stations, Al-Manar and Al-Nour, the bases of the Radwan Force, and branches of the Al-Qard al-Hasan association, which Hezbollah uses to store money, pay salaries to operatives, transfer funds from Iran, and purchase weapons, according to the Lebanese media.

Israel also has killed Reza Khazaei, a member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force. He supervised the flow of Iranian weapons and equipment to Hezbollah, played a role in Hezbollah’s plan to reconstitute itself, and was instrumental in restoring smuggling routes from Iran to Hezbollah.

Yesterday, Israel warned Iranian officials in Lebanon that they will be fair game if they do not leave the country within 24 hours.

In the face of this turbulence, the Lebanese government has banned Hezbollah military activities “outside the framework of its legitimate institutions,” affirmed that the decision of war and peace is exclusively in its hands,” and demanded that Hezbollah turn in its weapons to the state.

Salam has ordered the army and security agencies to take “immediate measures” to prevent “any military operation or the launching of missiles or drones from Lebanese territory.” Aoun has said that “the decision of war and peace rests solely with the Lebanese state.”

It is an open question whether the Lebanese government is strong or resolute enough to enforce its policies. One suspects that it lacks the strength and the resolve to rein in Hezbollah, and that Israel will ultimately have to finish off Hezbollah in battles that still lie ahead.

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)