The China–Pakistan five point plan gestures in the right direction but misunderstands the moment. Wars like this do not end because diplomats urge restraint. They end when the terms of continued conflict become more costly than the terms of compromise. That threshold has not yet been reached. When it is, any serious peace framework will look very different from the polite sequencing of ceasefires and dialogue now being proposed.

A viable deal will begin not with a ceasefire but with a recognition of what each side cannot concede. For Washington and its allies, the central concern is not abstract stability but the material capabilities of the Iranian state. Nuclear latency, missile reach, and the architecture of proxy networks are not peripheral issues. They are the conflict. Any agreement that postpones these questions will only defer the next round of escalation.

For Tehran, the calculus is equally stark. This is not a negotiation over policy but over survival. The regime will not accept terms that resemble disarmament under pressure or that leave it exposed to future strikes. Nor will it trade away its regional leverage........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)