When policymakers discuss nuclear proliferation, attention usually turns to Iran or North Korea. Yet an emerging concern—still under-examined in global discourse—is the possibility of a future Turkish nuclear weapon. Michael Rubin, director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum and senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, recently argued that India in particular should not dismiss this scenario. His warning deserves broader scrutiny—not only in New Delhi, but also in Jerusalem.

Turkey is a NATO member and a long-standing participant in the global non-proliferation regime. It is also home to U.S. tactical nuclear weapons under NATO’s nuclear-sharing arrangements. Formally, Ankara remains bound by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). However, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has in the past publicly questioned why some states are permitted nuclear weapons while others are not. Combined with Turkey’s increasingly assertive regional posture—from Syria to Libya to the Eastern Mediterranean—this rhetoric has raised questions among security analysts about Ankara’s long-term ambitions.

Rubin’s core argument is not that Turkey is imminently building a bomb, but that the geopolitical consequences of such a move would be profound—and uniquely complicated by Turkey’s NATO membership. Unlike Iran or North Korea, Turkey benefits from the collective defense umbrella of the alliance. Article........

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