With international diplomacy largely consumed by Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the future of its regional influence, a growing number of Israeli strategists argue that Turkey deserves equal attention. Under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Ankara has pursued a more assertive foreign policy that combines military activism, diplomatic outreach, economic engagement, and ideological influence across the Middle East. Whether viewed as a pragmatic regional power or an increasingly revisionist actor, Turkey’s expanding role is reshaping strategic calculations from Jerusalem to Washington, raising difficult questions about the future balance of power in a region already defined by shifting alliances and persistent instability.

While diplomatic attention remains fixed on Iran and the future of its nuclear program, another geopolitical shift is quietly reshaping the Middle East. For many Israeli security analysts, Turkey—not Iran alone—is becoming an increasingly important variable in the region’s strategic equation.

For decades, Turkey occupied a unique position in Israel’s foreign policy. It was the first Muslim-majority nation to recognize the Jewish state and, for much of the Cold War and its aftermath, maintained robust diplomatic, military, and commercial ties with Jerusalem. That partnership reflected shared strategic interests and demonstrated that cooperation between Israel and a major Muslim nation was possible despite broader regional tensions.

That era has largely ended. Since Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2003, relations have steadily deteriorated. Diplomatic crises, divergent regional priorities, and........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)