Although the Israeli polls over the last two years have consistently shown that the Opposition is well ahead of the governing Coalition, the former are not at all guaranteed an absolute majority in the elections. The general trend: around 59 for the Opposition parties, approximately 51 for the Government’s parties, and roughly 10 for the Arab parties.

Given this breakdown, the governing coalition has but one realistic hope: ensuring that none of the Arab parties join the opposition. This would ensure a new government not being formed; new elections would then have to be called three months later (that’s five months after the previous one this coming October 27, because coalition negotiations take around two months to succeed or fail). In that scenario, PM Netanyahu continues in office indefinitely.

It’s no surprise, therefore, that the Likud’s main election campaign message is: “[Eizenkot/Bennett/etc.] will have Arabs joining the government.” With 70% of Israel’s Jews against an Arab party in the government, such an accusation has resonance. But it’s also hypocritical, and most probably doesn’t hint at what is most likely to happen.

The hypocrisy is evident in two different ways. In the previous post-election negotiations, the Likud itself was deeply involved in discussions with Mansour Abbas’s RAAM Party to see whether and how it could join the government. So back then RAAM was legitimate, but this election it isn’t? Especially when after Oct. 7, 2023, Mansour Abbas (not the head of the Palestinian Authority; that’s Mahmoud Abbas) said absolutely nothing to support Hamas’s depredations. Indeed, in interviews that November he criticized the attack without........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)