With the Jewish New Year upon us, we all wish for good news in the coming annum. But it’s been here all along. I’ll start far away, and then quickly move to Israel.

Over the past five years, Japan has lost three million citizens. No, they weren’t kidnapped or drowned in another tsunami. Rather, that’s the much larger number of those who passed away as compared to Japanese babies born in the same period. And Japan isn’t the worst “offender” in this regard. That dubious record goes to South Korea with 0.7 children per woman!

What’s the connection to Israel? The Jewish State is the only country among all 38 OECD (advanced) nations that has a birth rate above “replacement” (considered 2.1 kids per female). As of 2025, Israel’s ratio is 3.06 – double that of the overall OECD average: 1.5! (For a breakdown by population sector, see my postscript below.)

So what? More than anything else, female fertility is the best indicator of a country’s social health. A high rate means that the population sees a rosy future for the country; a low rate is a sign of social pessimism. And even if pessimism is not why people are birthing at a lower-than-replacement rate, they should be depressed because it means that their children (if they have any at all), will be living in a much more difficult situation nationally. For example, South Korea today has 42 million people. At its present rate of fertility, by the year 2100 it will end up with a mere 2 million souls, most of whom will be elderly. In short, there won’t be a South Korea left!

However, even if such a demographic wipeout doesn’t occur it’s already too late for........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)