For the first time in a long while, someone looking at Israel and the Middle East from a distance might be tempted to believe that the worst is finally behind us.

The direct attacks involving Iran appear to have stopped for now. Israel is no longer advancing deeper into Lebanon, although the ceasefire remains fragile and incidents have continued. The Houthis in Yemen are, at this moment, no longer launching the relentless attacks that became part of Israel’s reality. There are renewed efforts to remove Hamas as an armed force in Gaza. Airlines are looking again toward Israel. The IDF continues operating in Judea and Samaria against terrorist infrastructure and planned attacks.

From the surface, the picture almost looks reassuring.

Perhaps Israel is finally heading toward peace. Perhaps the region is slowly returning to stability. Perhaps Israelis can begin thinking about normal life again.

I desperately wish that were true.

But it ain’t over until it is over.

What we are seeing today is not necessarily peace. It may simply be a period in which several fronts have temporarily become quieter. Underneath that relative calm lies a Middle East that remains extraordinarily volatile. Recent events in Lebanon alone demonstrate how quickly a ceasefire can come under pressure, with deadly incidents followed by renewed Israeli strikes.

The same caution applies to Iran. A pause in attacks is important and diplomacy should always be given a chance, but a pause should never automatically be confused with the disappearance of the underlying threat. Recent negotiations and pauses in military action have taken place against a background of continuing confrontation and uncertainty.

Gaza remains another enormous challenge. Hamas has been........

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