All events in this article through Sept. 26, 2026, are historically accurate. Everything that follows is a hypothetical – and, hopefully, unlikely – scenario.

It is Jan. 5, 2029, three days after Iran launched hundreds of ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv and Haifa. Thousands of Israeli civilians are dead and many more wounded.

Iran had spent weeks probing Israel’s defenses. This time it launched enough missiles to overwhelm them. Israel’s stocks of Arrow and David’s Sling interceptors had been badly depleted, while the U.S. had stopped providing the financial and military support that once helped replenish Israel’s defenses. Iranian planners calculated that enough missiles would get through to inflict catastrophic damage.

Residential neighborhoods, schools and hospitals were hit. Ben Gurion Airport remained untouched. Tehran announced that it wouldn’t target the airport and encouraged Jews to leave the country. Flights were booked for weeks.

World leaders condemned the attack, called for a ceasefire, and pleaded with Israel to not escalate the conflict with its response.

But the funding cutoff had left Israel dangerously short of the interceptors it needed to withstand another sustained attack.

The political response in the U.S. was divided on partisan lines. Republicans called on the U.S. to resupply Israel and to use U.S. forces to attack Iran. Republican leaders charged that Congress cut off Israel’s defenses and Iran got the message. Tel Aviv and Haifa paid the price.

Democratic leaders countered that Iran bore responsibility for the attack, that Israel still possessed one of the world’s most sophisticated militaries and that American weapons couldn’t provide a blank check for every decision of an Israeli government.

Outside the Capitol, the reaction was less restrained. The Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) organized demonstrations portraying the attack as another step toward Palestinian liberation. The scenes recalled Oct. 8, 2023, when the DSA’s New York chapter promoted a Times Square rally in solidarity with Palestinians and their “right to resist,” one day after the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack. This time, however, the demonstrations attracted tens of thousands.

How did Israel, whose multilayered missile defenses had repeatedly protected it from Iranian attacks, become so vulnerable?

To understand how American politics had reached this point, turn the clock back to the fall of 2026.

The decisive midterm elections

The political ground had shifted rapidly. Ending U.S. military assistance to Israel had long been a position associated with the DSA, which called for ending both U.S. aid and weapons sales. By 2026, versions of that position had moved well beyond the socialist left. J Street, which described itself as pro-Israel, now advocated phasing out the American subsidies that helped finance Israel’s defenses.

In the U.S., support for Israel became a divisive issue in the 2026 midterm elections.  Republicans favored continuing arms sales to Israel without imposing new restrictions.

But a growing number of Democrats saw constraining U.S. support for Israel as both good policy and increasingly good politics.  A key turning point came on April 13, 2026, when J Street called for an end to U.S. subsidies for military aid to Israel.

J Street believed the policy would strengthen the U.S.-Israel relationship. The next two years........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)