The lists for the upcoming Knesset elections are closed now. Thirty-eight political parties have submitted candidate lists to the Central Elections Committee. Many of those parties have little realistic chance of passing Israel’s 3.25 percent electoral threshold. The most consequential elections in Israeli history will be decided by a much smaller group of serious contenders. Most of them are familiar to the Israeli electorate. The fragmentation of the political landscape means that every vote counts: A party that barely fails to cross the threshold can deny its ideological camp a number of Knesset seats.

These are the main parties:

Yashar  – led by Gadi Eisenkot  

The political phenomenon of this election is Yashar, led by ex-IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot. Eisenkot has become the new “hot” name in Israeli politics and, at least for the time being, seems to have much electoral momentum behind him. Recent polling gave Yashar 24-25 seats.

Eisenkot provides a combination that Netanyahu has difficulty finding: military experience, a reputation for seriousness, personal credibility and the image of someone who is not part of the traditional political establishment. His experience as a former senior military commander is especially pertinent in an election that takes place after the huge security failures of October 7 and the ensuing wars and military confrontations.

Yashar is the most interesting development of the campaign. I hope Eisenkot does well and gets more mandates than Likud. More broadly, his success would show that Israeli voters are prepared to give strong support to a political alternative based on security, competence, national responsibility and institutional repair rather than Netanyahu’s long-standing political formula.

Likud – led by Benjamin Netanyahu

Likud is still the dominant force on the right wing of the Israeli political spectrum and still has an extremely loyal electoral base. Despite all that has transpired over the past few years, Netanyahu remains a formidable political force.

His government has initiated the deep political and social rift of trying to reform the judiciary, which has sparked massive demonstrations and contributed to an unprecedented level of internal polarisation. Then came the attack by Hamas on 7 October 2023, the taking of 251 hostages, the ongoing war in Gaza, the repeated regional confrontations, the war with Hezbollah, attacks and exchanges of fire by Iran, and attacks on Israel from different directions including Syria, Yemen and Iraq. It has been a period of unusual insecurity and military mobilisation in the country.

Meanwhile Israel has been torn by internal divisions over how the war has been waged, the fate of the hostages, who is to blame for the failures before 7 October, the relationship between the government and the judiciary, the position of human rights organisations, violence by Israeli settlers in the West Bank, the cost of living, taxation, pressure on public services and Israel’s ever more difficult diplomatic environment. Netanyahu and his allies have also mounted sustained attacks on political opponents, critics and institutions they cast as obstacles to the elected government.

So there are many reasons why one might have expected Likud to have suffered a far more dramatic electoral collapse. But that didn’t happen. Likud has a remarkably durable core electorate and Netanyahu can still mobilise voters around security........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)