The possibility of Bangladesh becoming South Asia’s next Ukraine may sound extreme, but two major security developments have made the question harder to dismiss. Dhaka is considering the Makkah Pact while preparing to buy Chinese J-10CE fighter jets. India has now said publicly that it is watching developments that could affect its security.

None of this means that India is likely to attack Bangladesh. The greater danger is the period before Bangladesh receives any firm defence guarantee. During that time, Dhaka’s political signals could alarm India without giving Bangladesh reliable protection.

The Makkah Pact was signed by Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan on August 7. It states that an armed attack on one member will be treated as an attack on all. This collective-defence promise explains why Bangladesh’s possible membership has attracted India’s attention.

On August 25, foreign-affairs adviser Humayun Kabir said Bangladesh viewed possible membership in the Makkah Pact positively. Two days later, Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman told parliament that Bangladesh had not yet decided whether to join.

Khalilur said Dhaka would consider membership if Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan issued an invitation. He described the pact as a self-defence system for the Muslim world and called it an internal matter of the “Muslim family.”

On August 27, Kabir met Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan in Jeddah. He delivered a written message from Prime Minister Tarique Rahman to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

The official Saudi account said the letter concerned bilateral relations and ways to strengthen them. It did not say that the Makkah Pact was discussed, and the complete letter has not been published.

Bangladesh has therefore expressed political interest, but it has not joined the Makkah Pact. No formal invitation or accession document has been made public. There is also no membership timetable or detailed defence guarantee.

The pact remains a possibility, but it is not the only security development attracting attention. Bangladesh is also moving forward with a major Chinese arms purchase, and that plan has reached a more advanced stage.

Government documents show an in-principle plan to buy 20 J-10CE fighters in a package worth about $2.3 billion. A committee has held negotiations and prepared a draft agreement.

The package would include training, logistics, construction and other support. However, no final contract, payment schedule or delivery date has been publicly confirmed.

Bangladesh is also moving to buy........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)