In the coming days, negotiations between Iran and the US to end this war may begin. As part of the lead up to negotiations, it is entirely probable that Trump and Iran will agree to a total ceasefire before they begin. Iran has promised Hizbollah that a ceasefire will include our north.

Due to these possibilities, Netanyahu has ordered the Air Force to greatly increase the bombings of military production facilities, missile launchers and missile storage locations.

Even before Trump began yelling about these negotiations, Netanyahu had his coalition vote on increasing the number of reserves they can call up immediately to 400,000 in order to begin a major ground offensive in Lebanon. This, however was done with the backdrop of possible direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon proposed by France which could have major potential for a far reaching non belligerency agreement that could lead to a full peace treaty.

If the negotiations with Iran lead to an end of the war, which is likely because Trump needs to end the war for political reasons, an agreement will fall very short of Trump’s 15 points. Despite all of his promises to Netanyahu, there are only 2 points that have utmost importance to Trump. He will likely show great flexibility with all the rest. The 2 issues for Trump: a nuclear agreement that Iran will end their nuclear program either for many years or ‘forever’ (however long forever may actually be)- he needs to show that he achieved a better agreement than Obama, and a financial interest either in Iranian oil or a partnership with Iran to be the joint toll-keepers for the Strait of Hormuz. Although the idea of giving Iran the rights to collect tolls from every ship going through the Strait is an unbelievable, unreasonable and unprecented demand, Trump may very well go along with it as long as he is a partner. I would not be surprised if he makes the same kind of deal here that he made with the Kuwaitis of their gift of the Royal 747 which will stay with Trump even after he leaves office. It is completely believable that he will attempt to make a deal in which the actual partner........

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