With the election of Abelardo de la Espriella in Colombia and Keiko Fujimori in Peru, Latin America is once again shifting from left to right. The pink tide of the early 2000s saw the rise of left and center-left governments, enjoying years of economic growth that allowed some countries, such as Brazil, to bolster their social welfare and punch above their weight in international affairs. Brazil took an active part in developing the Responsibility While Protecting doctrine as an alternative to the current intervention doctrine, emphasizing accountability and diplomacy against what it sees as an uneven application of intervention against the Global South. It bet on an active role in brokering a nuclear deal with Iran and raised its tone against the United States on several occasions.

Most of these attempts failed, mainly because these countries lacked the power to carry them out. When the 2010s economic slowdown hit, most initiatives were dropped or ignored. The only one that persisted was the animosity towards Israel. The pink tide viewed the Global South as a bet for the next decade, increasing trade with China, Russia, and India to lower its dependence on the United States. This also meant a stronger pro-Palestinian stance: several countries recognized Palestine in the 2010s — Brazil, Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador with Venezuela leading the way in 2009. The only exception was Chile, whose conservative president, Sebastian Piñera, was the one who recognized Palestine and deepened ties with Israel at the same time.

The pink tide eventually faded away as a general economic slump, continued corruption, and the left-right political divide eroded public support, leading to the rise of a new right. Jerusalem saw it as an opportunity to renew ties, and Brazil under Jair Bolsonaro is an emblematic example. Enthusiastically embracing the new president, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu attended his inauguration and publicly called for moving the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, a promise made during Bolsonaro’s campaign. The move never happened because Brazil feared a backlash from Arab countries that could affect agricultural exports, so it opened an office of its trade promotion agency instead. 

Brazil is the wildcard in this equation. Milei is a strong supporter, Kast in Chile has clearly expressed a pro-Israel stance, and Fujimori’s party has traditionally been pro-Israel. Honduras has a pro-Israel president, and Ecuador leans pro-Israel. Moreover, Brazil is the largest country and economy in Latin America. Its political orientation influences how the region is perceived and might also nudge some of its neighbors. 

Brazil will see new presidential elections in October 2026. The current president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, defeated Jair Bolsonaro in 2022, shifting the government from a right-wing, Israel-friendly orientation to a left-wing one that has put it on a collision course with Jerusalem. His main opponent is Flavio Bolsonaro, Jair’s son. Jair Bolsonaro is currently ineligible and under house arrest. He was convicted of plotting a coup, abusing his power, and undermining democracy........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)