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Buck up guys, we’re half-way there! That is, at least, according to Major General Zamir. Three weeks into the war, a siren failed and dozens were seriously injured. A few dead. It’s well within the bounds the war planners set for us. We send our sympathies to the families. A helicopter is downed near Qatar; the Emirates are getting the same missiles we’re getting – without the benefit of our defenses. All going according plan, we’re led to believe.

Both sides are threatening to plunge the world into darkness, without cars; the new Ayatollah has not been seen; the leader of the free world is both planning on winding the war down and ramping it up. It all hinges on a short 56 km-wide stretch of water (which could, some think, have been the target all along, but others deny the allegation). The Iranians block it; our side will blockade their blockade and capture an island in their waters.

Talk about miscalculation. Or too much calculation. This war is a bit like quantum mechanics – if you think you understand it, you don’t really understand. Somehow, we can both completely eradicate their missile system and get fired on several times a day. We can both end the war soon and keep it going as we approach, but never attain, goals that shift like gears on a Fiat going uphill.

Zamir got on TV yesterday evening to praise the Israeli people, especially those in the North who are living under constant bombardment with little-to-no warning, telling us our “strength” is what is enabling him to call up reservists and plan a new ground invasion of Lebanon. What he means is: “Stop complaining. It’s true we left you in on the front lines this time, instead of evacuating you again to safety. Live with it. Maybe we can get you a few more seconds warning when a rocket’s on the way, and we’ll expect you to thank us. Oh, and if you are one of those thousands in the danger zone who do not have shelter, go complain to the proper authorities, and you can get in line.”

We can both completely eradicate their missile system and get fired on several times a day

We can both completely eradicate their missile system and get fired on several times a day

We are told the new offensive, both against Iran and against Lebanon (is it one, dual, offensive or two separate but parallel ones?), will solve all of our problems, “once and for all.” Our immediate problem? We’ve heard that before. More than once. How much is double-speak, how much out and out lie? In any case, we’ve already learned that for any particular statement, the opposite is also necessarily true. (You can call that Israel’s maxim.)

Speaking of General Zamir, he has publicly called on the government to do something about the settlers who continue to rampage West Bank towns, unchecked. Not only are they interfering in army business (arresting, raiding and shooting, barely checked), but their actions are too unethical, even for the head of our military, to keep sliding under the national radar. He and we know he has checked the box, warned us, once again, of the danger. The present government will simply ignore him and continue to fund settlements. We, who oppose the settlers’ actions as well as much of the army’s, will continue to wring our hands from the safety of our shelters.

In the meantime, life goes on. Sort of. We struggle to focus, we are all stuck at home, all in the same boat, but isolated in our separate shelters. Is it calculation – a way of keeping the masses occupied while the government shovels more funds into ultraorthodox institutions, further erodes our democracy and starts planning for their eventual reelection? Or is it miscalculation – tying our fortunes to a frenetic leader who will end the war only when he “feels ready?”

They try to convince us everything is perfectly planned, to reframe our continuing war as a “great opportunity.” The plan may be set, but the physics are not the classical ones. We are not working in the world of equal and opposite reactions, but of one in which each moving particle adds an element of chaos to the system, in which two things may be true at once and in which bits that repel one another in one instant can annihilate each other in the next.

For example, our airstrikes are, indeed, killing top leaders, but no one can tell us what those killings have actually accomplished. And, despite Trump’s declaration that he intends to remove that other quantum stuff – the fissile material left over from the last operation – no one knows exactly where to find it. So: goals set out by the army and governments – making progress. Real goals, such as they are – somewhere between zero and one.

Having written all of this, I believe the end to the war will be classic. Money – whether the price of gas in California or the price of shipping in alternate lanes; the Saudis and Chinese, each with their own monetary stakes in the game; the Americans in Texas and the Midwest who see the bill mounting for a war on a country they can barely find on a map; the cost of a prolonged battle with diminishing returns – will tell Trump’s bones when the war is over. The end of the war will be as messy as it’s start appeared to be perfectly coordinated. But remember – the opposite will also be true.

And remember this maxim as well: Telling us we are creating a new Middle East by fighting the same old enemies in pretty much the same old way is, when you think about it, counterintuitive and counterproductive. If we want a new Middle East, it needs to begin with us.

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)