The Red Sea has turned into one of the planet’s most volatile flashpoints. More than 19,000 vessels carrying 12 to 13 percent of global trade steam through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait every year. Eritrea’s longtime dictator Isaias Afwerki controls the northern shoulder of this chokepoint. He rules a population of 3.5 million through indefinite forced national service, a policy that has driven thousands into exile. His regime systematically extracts a 2 percent tax from Eritreans living abroad by threatening their families at home.

However, the State of Israel flipped the strategic map. On December 26, 2025, Jerusalem became the first United Nations member state to recognize Somaliland’s independence. Full diplomatic ties and an embassy followed immediately. Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar visited Hargeisa and Berbera in January 2026. This move places Israeli influence directly across the Gulf of Aden from Eritrea’s vulnerable ports.

Geography favors the strategy.........

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