With the recent war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran seemingly moving toward a conclusion, many are wondering if the damage inflicted upon the Islamic Republic has created the conditions for the Iranian people to overthrow the regime and reclaim their country. While it remains far too early to know whether the conflict — if it has truly ended — will ultimately lead to regime change, another equally important question has emerged alongside it: if the Islamic Republic were to fall, could Iran realistically undergo a stable democratic transition?

Critics of externally pressured regime change often point to cases such as the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the collapse of First Libyan Civil War, where the fall of authoritarian governments did not produce stable liberal democracies, but instead led to political fragmentation, prolonged instability, or renewed authoritarianism. These examples raise a necessary question: what guarantees that the Islamic Republic’s collapse would produce something better rather than something equally unstable?

One argument raised in response is that Iran may differ from these cases because of the unique position of the Iranian diaspora. Indeed, compared to many other Middle Eastern communities, the Iranian diaspora are more highly educated, economically established, and globally connected. As a result, the Iranian diaspora may be better positioned to help support democratic institution-building in Iran after a hypothetical regime collapse.

Yet, if the diaspora hopes to help lay the foundation for democracy in Iran, then it must begin by cultivating democratic norms within its own movements and communities.

Healthy democracies depend not only on elections and constitutions, but also on political actors accepting certain democratic norms. In their 2018 book, How Democracies Die, Harvard professors Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt argue that democracies........

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