The widespread violence that erupted following the October 7, 2023, atrocities and the subsequent annihilation of Gaza was a tectonic turning point for the Middle East. The events that followed October 2023 profoundly intensified regional dynamics and geopolitics. Does that in itself constitute a fundamental restructuring of the Middle East? I believe that, looking at the balance of power in the region, the post-2023 shifts largely represent an intensification and reconfiguration of pre-existing trends rather than a clean break or a wholesale “unmaking” of the regional order.

While the conflict has damaged Israel’s international standing, weakened Iran materially, albeit recently being strengthened in its negotiating position, elevated Turkey’s regional role, and reframed the interests of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and key non-state actors, these changes can be understood as part of an evolving multipolar balance rather than a new geopolitical paradigm. ​

The balance of power theory assumes that when military or material power becomes overly concentrated in a single state or coalition, others will take steps to restore the balance of power. States must rely on self-help to ensure survival. In a multipolar system, states form external alliances to counter threats.

The Middle East can be described as a multipolar order characterized by continuous competition. Since the region is prone to high levels of conflict and enduring rivalries, hard balancing (through military alliances and armaments) is often observed.

The Middle East is a volatile region marked by conflict. Therefore, it is challenging to pinpoint a singular event that has significantly reshaped it. However, one such event was the 1967 Arab-Israeli War, which stands as a significant moment of regional restructuring. Egypt’s loss of the Sinai and Gaza shattered Nasser’s pan-Arab vision, paving the way for Sadat’s rise and the eventual Camp David Accords. Israel’s capture of the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Gaza, Sinai, and Golan Heights cemented its military dominance. Syria’s defeat and loss of the Golan deepened its Soviet alignment and militarization, while the massive Palestinian refugee influx into Jordan heightened the centrality of the Palestinian question.

Unlike the sweeping territorial state-level transformations after 1967, the aftermath of October 2023 has not produced comparable geopolitical restructuring. The 2023 war was fought not between states but between Israel and a network of non-state actors, leaving regional regimes, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia,  and the UAE largely stable. The Iranian regime, too, as of the time of writing, remains intact despite the significant military blowback and the assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei. Meanwhile, groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, though weakened, remain operational.

Hamas, weakened, maintains governing power in part of the strip in the wake of the Trump-brokered ceasefire. Although Trump’s plan called for the disarmament of the organization, there are signs that the future of Gaza is likely to include Hamas in some capacity. The other notable non-state actor, Hezbollah, has also taken a blow due to the Israeli offensive in Lebanon. Yet, it continues to enjoy Iranian backing, tying Israeli withdrawal to a ceasefire with the U.S.

The war revived global focus on the Palestinian issue, as Hamas’s attack broke years of diplomatic sidelining and........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)