The second round of the Islamabad Talks, intended as a form of life support for a two-week ceasefire that expired on the evening of April 22, 2026, remains shrouded in uncertainty. The question is no longer whether the talks will take place, but when.

On one side, the United States, under Donald Trump, has displayed an unusual level of assertiveness in pushing for negotiations. Washington has even abandoned its own deadline after the April 22 cutoff passed. Yet this urgency is not rooted in any principled commitment to peace. It is driven by mounting economic pressures amid growing fears of a global recession and the political calculus of looming midterm elections.

Iran, however, sees the situation very differently. Trump’s aggressive posture has undermined the prospects for sustained dialogue in Islamabad, eroding the fragile political consensus within Tehran itself.

Indeed, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, whether enforced by Iran or the United States, has proven a self-defeating strategy for the global energy market. Brent crude prices have surged to nearly $95 per barrel, at times flirting with the $100 threshold, marking an increase of over 30 percent since the initial strikes in February.

At the same time, domestic political pressure in the United States has forced Trump to pursue a “peace deal” that could quickly bring down gasoline prices. This stands in stark contrast to his continued inflammatory rhetoric on social media, where he has threatened to send Iran “back to the Stone Age” should negotiations fail.

The U.S. negotiating team slated for Islamabad reflects a blend of formal authority and highly transactional personal networks. Vice President J.D. Vance is expected to lead a sizable delegation of 300 officials, alongside key figures such as Jared Kushner and special envoy Steve Witkoff.

Although the U.S. delegation has temporarily delayed its departure due to uncertainty from the Iranian side, it is likely to retain its original composition once the talks proceed.

Kushner’s continued presence, best known as the architect of the Abraham Accords, signals that Washington’s ambitions extend beyond merely ending hostilities. The United........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)