If we are indeed talking about the open war phase initiated on February 28, 2026, between Iran and the American-Israeli coalition, the question is not whether the Islamic Republic is affected. It is deep. The real question is another: does being very touched mean being close to collapse? At this point, my answer is no. The Iranian regime is shaken, weakened, and disorganized at the top, but it is not yet in a situation of imminent collapse. Even after the elimination of Ali Khamenei, then of Ali Larijani, and other leading officials, several analyses and even assessments of US intelligence estimate that the system still retains control over the state apparatus, coercion, and the street.

The first reason for this resilience lies precisely in the «mosaic defense.» It is not a simple slogan. It is a doctrine built for nearly twenty years to prevent a campaign of “decapitation” from bringing down the entire building in one fell swoop. The Revolutionary Guards have delegated authority very far in the hierarchy, with planned replacements several ranks below. According to Reuters, each level of command prepared successions up to three levels lower down. The idea is simple: if Tehran is hit, a province, region, or branch of the Pasdarans must be able to continue fighting, hold the territory, and enforce internal order. This logic was developed after observing the Iraqi........

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