I will refrain from making predictions. War, yes/no? However, the methods used have led me to reconsider my stance on the issue.

The phrase “hot and cold” refers to a method rather than a mood swing. In the wake of early-January bloodshed on the streets of Iran, the arrival of US naval power off its coastline has turned diplomacy into a pressure chamber. The message from President Donald Trump is deliberately double-edged: “I can,” paired with “I’d rather not.” In markets, that is classic volatility engineering—raise uncertainty, widen the range of outcomes, and force counterparties to move. Washington’s........

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