Donald Trump’s problem with Iran extends well beyond the battlefield. The war he has defended as necessary to keep Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon is being fought while Americans prepare to vote in the November 3 midterm elections, with the economy and the cost of living at the top of their concerns. A poll released on September 22 found that only 26 percent of Americans approve of his handling of Iran, down from 33 percent in March, and that 78 percent believe he is not doing enough to end the war. Reuters/Ipsos measured his overall approval at 32 percent the day before, the lowest of his political career. Beneath a mountain in central Iran sits one event that could change the political conversation: Pickaxe Mountain.

What would happen if the United States neutralized it before Election Day?

Pickaxe is not another site of the kind already struck. In June 2025, the United States struck Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. Pickaxe Mountain was not attacked. Considerable uncertainty persists about what Iran subsequently placed there. Israeli intelligence has reportedly assessed that thousands of centrifuges were moved to the complex, along with part of Iran’s stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium.

The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), which has closely monitored Pickaxe through commercial satellite imagery, offers a more cautious picture. Its September analysis found that Iran had blocked access to the tunnel portals and added earth over some entrances, apparently hardening them against attack. The Institute assessed that the facility was not currently being used for operations, while also concluding that it likely contains valuable equipment or materials. What exactly lies beneath the mountain remains unknown.

Trump has nevertheless drawn attention to Pickaxe again and again, most recently on September 4, when he said the United States could hit it “very soon.” After seven months of war, Pickaxe has become the piece of Iran’s nuclear program that everyone can still point to.

It is unfinished business.

An attack by itself would do little to sustain a victory narrative. A cratered mountainside........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)