J. D. Vance is on his way to Islamabad to negotiate a ceasefire. Another attempt to broker a pause in a system that doesn’t pause.

At the same time, Israel is still striking in Lebanon. Iran is still very much in the picture. Hezbollah hasn’t disappeared. Hamas isn’t gone.

So what exactly are we negotiating?

If this feels familiar, it should. We have seen this movie before. A flare up. A round of fighting. International pressure. A ceasefire. And then, slowly but inevitably, the system resets.

Which raises an uncomfortable question. Are we actually trying to end this conflict? Or are we just managing it?

For decades, US policy toward Iran has largely followed a strategy of containment. Different administrations, different tones, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, but a similar underlying approach. Limit Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Avoid direct war. Use sanctions, diplomacy, and pressure to keep the threat boxed in.

To be fair, containment did some things. It slowed Iran’s nuclear program. It avoided large scale regional war for a period of time. But it also did something else. It gave Iran time.

Time to build. Time to adapt. Time to shift from direct confrontation to indirect warfare. Iran did not........

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