A Strategic Analysis of the Iran–U.S.–Israel War and Its Consequences for the Future Order of the Middle East

In every military conflict, all parties involved seek to portray themselves as the victors. Yet the reality on the ground is always more complex than propaganda, media, and political narratives suggest. The recent war has been no exception. This prolonged confrontation showed that none of the principal actors—not the Islamic Republic of Iran, not Israel, not the United States, nor their regional allies—has emerged from this crisis without bearing significant political, security, military, and strategic costs. For that reason, all sides are now compelled to redefine their objectives, tools, priorities, and calculations within a new framework. However, redefining strategies does not necessarily mean that a balance has been established or that the war has ended; rather, it indicates that the conflict has entered a new and more complex phase.

In assessing the current situation, it can be said that the Islamic Republic of Iran has been placed in a position of strategic weakness, and any possible return to the negotiating table would occur not from a position of strength, but as a result of mounting political, military, and geopolitical pressure. By contrast, the United States and Israel have managed this phase from a position of military and political superiority. From this perspective, the existing negotiations are fragile and unstable in nature and, rather than signaling the end of the war, they reflect a kind of temporary military and political realignment by the United States and Israel—one aimed at creating the space necessary for discussions over the concessions Washington is demanding from Tehran. Under such circumstances, Iran, having been placed in a weak position, neither has the capacity to impose its own demands nor, even if it were to present specific demands, is it likely to secure American agreement.

Within this framework, the realization of Israel’s objectives is not limited merely to the temporary containment of the Islamic Republic’s behavior; at deeper levels, it is tied to the structural weakening and even the collapse of Iran’s entire political system. From this perspective, the issue of the Strait of Hormuz—although it carries immediate and strategic importance for the United States and the global economy—has never been Israel’s primary priority. If Washington agreed to a temporary ceasefire in order to........

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