The security and political future of South West State is increasingly shaped by emerging regional rivalries and the growing risk of external military involvement. Recent developments suggest that the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS), based in Villa Somalia, may be pursuing a strategic realignment that includes deepening military cooperation with Egypt. This evolving partnership raises concerns about the potential introduction of Egyptian military assets into Somalia’s internal security landscape.

Such a move, if realized, would not be an isolated development. Turkey’s longstanding political and military support for the FGS, through training, infrastructure, and institutional backing, positions it as an indirect enabler of federal-level strategic decisions. While Turkey’s role remains primarily state-centric, its alignment with Mogadishu contributes to a shifting balance of power........

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