The fossil fuel industry is using the Iran war to undermine net zero

April 29, 2026 — 5:00am

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Professor Ross Garnaut is the leading voice among Australia’s many economists. Whereas most economists tend to focus on the most immediate and prosaic of our economic problems, Garnaut is more prophetic. He looks at issues further into the future, drawing them to the attention of the public and our politicians.

He has led his profession’s thinking about climate change and what the world must do to limit global warming. How we must switch from using fossil fuels and generating emissions of greenhouse gases to drawing energy – renewable energy – from the sun and moon.

As one of the world’s biggest exporters of fossil fuels, you might expect this global transition to renewable energy to be bad news for our export industries and economy. The day may not be too far distant when our reserves of coal and gas lie unwanted and so valueless. The prices we get for these commodities could be expected to start falling as more renewable energy is produced.

But Garnaut is no pessimist. He sees a bright future for our energy exports. Why? Because, as he was the first to recognise, Australia’s “comparative advantage” in producing coal and gas may become valueless, but we have a new comparative advantage to take its place: an abundance of sun and wind.

Indeed, Garnaut famously predicts that, provided we play our cards right, we can become a renewable energy “superpower,” exporting it to countries that don’t share our new hot and breezy natural endowment, particularly in Asia.

In........

© The Sydney Morning Herald