One Nation may well win Sussan Ley’s seat – that would be terrible for all of us

March 5, 2026 — 5:00am

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It is not even remotely funny, but independent federal MP Helen Haines is convinced that the Farrer byelection caused by the departure of former opposition leader Sussan Ley will end up a two-horse race between the community independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe and One Nation.

Haines, whose electorate of Indi borders Farrer, and who retained the seat last May after scoring a primary vote of 42.3 per cent, shudders at the thought that One Nation is even in contention.

The reason for that, she says, is because the Coalition’s behaviour since the election has turned it into a “laughing stock”.

Haines remains hopeful that Milthorpe, who came in second to Ley after securing a 20 per cent primary vote in May and has not stopped working the electorate since, will triumph.

Even in September, the mother of the community independents movement, Cathy McGowan, told me that if Ley lost the leadership and quit parliament, Milthorpe would win the byelection. That was before One Nation began taking chunks out of the once-major parties.

Milthorpe, who prefers not to be branded a teal, sounds both smart and sensible. She is embedded in the community through her work as a teacher, particularly with disabled kids. Last May, she won every booth in Albury. She is confident, as is Haines, that regional voters will not respond well to Pauline Hanson’s anti-immigration rhetoric because they know that without migrants their farms and towns would slowly die.

Smart Liberals also know this and believe it is very wrong to assume every country person is a redneck. In any case, they know that while Hanson does attract bigots from every corner and class of Australia, her “popularity” has more to do with the disillusionment in the major parties – including Labor, which will most likely not run a candidate in the byelection.

Smart Liberals also agree with Haines that it could be a two-horse race, with neither horse wearing Liberal or National colours. That would be bad enough. What would be worse, for everyone, is if One Nation won. That too is possible.

Some senior Labor figures have argued the moral case for running a candidate as a means of highlighting the perils of One Nation. However, others fear this would end up helping One Nation and hurting Milthorpe. No Labor candidate potentially means more primary votes for Milthorpe, which could help her over the line.

At this stage, the byelection could be either May 2 or May 9 in the run-up to the budget. Thanks to Easter, Anzac Day on a Saturday and school holidays, Speaker Milton Dick’s task of choosing the date is more complicated than usual.

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Although Labor has no hope of winning Farrer – not even on a good day, which these days are few and far between – it has been acutely aware of the inroads One Nation has been making into its vote since the 2022 election. That has accelerated and will continue until and unless Labor seizes control of the political discourse.

From now on and particularly in the budget on May 12, the Albanese government’s motto should be “use it or lose it”. There is no point having a whopping majority only to shrink from using the power it delivers.

The budget will be its best chance to spark up the economy, revive interest in Labor as the agent of change (for the better) and dispel the notion that the prime minister is reformophobic.

The signs so far are that Anthony Albanese gets it. If he didn’t get it, the debate over capital gains tax and negative gearing would have been shut down weeks ago, so unless he wobbles, it is shaping up as a big-bang statement. The Middle East war initiated by the US emperor, Donald Trump, is a reason to press ahead with reforms to strengthen the economy, not an excuse to delay.

For months now, Australians have been telling the Coalition and Labor, via the opinion polls, to do better. Much better.

The latest Redbridge survey in The Australian Financial Review, shows One Nation well ahead of the Liberal Party, and nudging dangerously close to Labor’s primary vote. Redbridge found more than one in five of the 28 per cent of voters intending to put One Nation first said it was because they “disliked all major political parties”. Another 15 per cent nominated immigration, and another 14 per cent said they “like Pauline Hanson as a leader”.

It would be bad enough if the Liberals lost Farrer to an independent. It would be much, much worse for them – and for the body politic, and for the country – if One Nation won.

Liberals should be going all out to destroy One Nation rather than try to be a pale imitation.

There are political and moral reasons for the Liberals to preference One Nation last, unless there is an even more unpalatable option – hard to imagine, yet they exist – like the neo-Nazis or sovereign citizens.

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If the Liberals don’t, they will be signalling to people that voting for One Nation is OK. It would give One Nation legitimacy. Right-wing Liberals dread being called Labor-lite, thinking that would be the death of them, when in fact being One Nation-lite will surely kill them.

Former prime minister John Howard was loath to condemn Hanson in his first term, until 1998 when his deputy, Peter Costello, told Laurie Oakes on Nine’s Sunday program he would put One Nation last in his seat of Higgins. An angry Howard rang Costello to complain, then eventually came to see the wisdom of it.

Attacking Hanson and putting One Nation last while explaining to her likely supporters how damaging her prescriptions would be for the country was the right call 30 years ago and is the right call today.

What the Coalition needs now is a figure of substance and courage to do what Costello did.

Niki Savva is a regular columnist for The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald. Her most recent book, Earthquake, details the inside story of the 2025 election.

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© The Sydney Morning Herald