Snakes and Ladders: The verdict on which teams will rise and fall in 2026
There isn’t one bad team right now. Not one. Just ask them.
The top eight – sorry, the top 10 – should include all 18 teams, based on summer dreams.
No two AFL seasons are the same, every campaign can be likened to a game of snakes and ladders, where some teams rise and others fall.Credit: Marija Ercegovac
Well, at least 16; a couple of them would be happy to jump to 11th or 12th.
Putting the “please buy a membership” marketing hyperbole aside, though, some teams have tangibly changed for better, and others for worse, ahead of season 2026.
The Brisbane Lions, of course. When you have won the past two flags and managed to added high-quality kids you’re in good shape. They also have a Norm Smith medallist whose school mates have barely finished O-week at uni, so we know they are only getting better. They traded in Oscar Allen and Sam Draper; both inclusions that look good on paper and will look even better on the field if they get through their injuries and onto the park, and perform at the level we have seen of them in the past.
Lion Will Ashcroft holds his Norm Smith Medal and his premiership medal after the 2025 flag win.Credit: Getty Images
Gold Coast changed the narrative about their club by not only making finals but winning one ... while Essendon fans quietly recoiled to the foetal position. Making finals showed the Suns were rising; winning one showed they had more grit than previously demonstrated in their bleak history. The Suns added bankable talent in Christian Petracca, who could be transformative for the group, and the not-so-bankable, but potentially just as transformative, talent of Jamarra Ugle-Hagan.
Geelong won’t drop, and maybe their underlying depth will help them go a step beyond last year.
There’s an argument to put Fremantle in the contention bracket – they don’t lack for much – but there’s been an argument that they’d contend for the past three years, and they are yet to live up to their promise. Their loss to the Suns in an elimination final at home was another opportunity lost. History says be wary of them.
Hawthorn could and should be maturing to strike for another flag, but their own moves in the off-season are oddly the reason for doubt. The self-awareness that they needed to burnish their midfield is the strong pointer to why to doubt them taking a step now. They thought they would get Will Day back and blend him with Zach Merrett. Now they have no Merrett, Day out for months and James Worpel playing for Geelong.
Still, the Hawks don’t lack for much, will get Day in the back half, James Sicily is fit after being injured all last year, and Josh Weddle, who will sign a new contract before the season starts (probably this week), is on the cusp of becoming one of the competition’s elite........
