Germany’s fragile economic recovery is unfolding alongside a deepening crisis of political confidence. The latest state elections raise a question extending beyond Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s fortunes: can economic improvement restore faith in established parties when voters remain uncertain about their future? The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) won 44 per cent in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6, followed by another breakthrough in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on September 20, where it secured 38.2 per cent. Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) received just 4.9 per cent there, falling below the threshold for parliamentary representation.

In Berlin, far Left Die Linke came first with 25.7 per cent, ahead of the CDU’s 18.8 per cent; the AfD finished third with 16.3 per cent. These contrasting results reveal discontent taking different political forms. The CDU’s collapse in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania is a major setback for the party leading Germany’s federal government. Merz has called the outcome a disaster but insists that his coalition with the Social Democrats must endure and that reforms must proceed. His determination to remain in office, however, cannot resolve the underlying crisis of confidence.

The real question is whether........

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