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Managed Stalemate

2 75
21.02.2026

Diplomacy often advertises itself as motion even when it is mostly a way of standing still. The latest round of contacts among Russia, Ukraine and the United States fits that pattern. The war is being fought over land, security, and sovereignty and none of the three can be bartered away with polite formulas. For Kyiv, the issue is existential. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy cannot plausibly sell a settlement that hands over the Donbas, a region that is not only strategically vital but also symbolically central to Ukraine’s claim that borders in Europe cannot be redrawn by force.

Any such concession would echo far beyond the map, signaling that invasion can still pay. That is why Ukrainian officials keep returning to the same point: a “just peace” cannot begin with the permanent loss of territory, and any ceasefire that freezes today’s front lines risks becoming tomorrow’s prelude to another offensive. Moscow’s position is just as rigid, though for different reasons. President Vladimir Putin’s war has been justified at home as a historic correction and a security necessity. Walking away without control over the eastern regions would undermine the narrative that sustains the campaign.

The Kremlin’s insistence on territorial gains is not only about geography; it is about validating the costs already paid in blood, money, and political isolation. Washington, under President Donald Trump, is playing a more impatient game. The United States wants an end to a conflict that drains attention and resources, yet impatience is not a strategy. Pressure can bring parties to a table, but it cannot by itself reconcile incompatible goals. Telling one side to “come to the table faster” does not solve the underlying dispute over what that table is actually for: a pause in fighting, or a durable settlement that reshapes Europe’s security order. The fight over the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant captures the larger dilemma in concrete form.

It is not just a power station; it is a strategic lever, a symbol of control, and a risk to millions if mismanaged. Proposals to internationalise it or share oversight sound reasonable in theory, yet they collide with the same reality as the territorial talks: neither side trusts the other enough to treat such assets as neutral. What these negotiations really show is not failure, but friction without resolution. Prisoner exchanges and limited confidence-building steps may continue, and they matter to the people directly affected. But they should not be mistaken for momentum toward peace. A war that began with maximalist aims will not end through minimalist compromises. The uncomfortable truth is that diplomacy here is marking time while the battlefield continues to shape the future terms. Until one side’s calculations change ~ through military pressure, economic strain, or political upheaval ~ the talks will remain what they are now: necessary, civil, and largely symbolic. In that sense, the persistence of negotiation is not a sign of imminent peace, but of a conflict still searching for a decisive turning point

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