The world is currently witnessing a volatile escalation in the Middle East, with the conflict between the United States, its allies, and Iran crossing thresholds many deemed unthinkable. Following the military operations initiated in early 2026 – characterized as Operation Epic Fury and Operation Roaring Lion – the situation has moved beyond a tactical engagement into a sustained war.

While immediate battlefield headlines focus on military airstrikes and drone attacks, the broader public and political discourse often fails to grasp the profound, long-term consequences of a continued, escalating conflict. Continued conflict between the US and Iran is not merely another regional dispute; it is a catastrophe in slow motion, threatening to trigger the worst economic supply disruption since the 1970s, fuel global terrorism, and irreversibly destabilize the global energy landscape. The most immediate and severe consequence of continued hostility is the effective control of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran.

Since late February 2026, the Strait – a passage for 20 per cent of the world’s seaborne oil and 20 per cent of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) – has seen traffic largely blocked or disrupted. If this blockade continues or escalates, the implications are dire. Brent crude prices have already surged past $120 per barrel, with projections suggesting prices could skyrocket to $150 or even $200 if key infrastructure remains targeted. Disrupted LNG flows threaten to cause severe fuel shortages in parts of Asia, Europe, and Africa, with Qatar declaring force majeure on exports. Analysts warn that a prolonged closure of this key artery, coupled with attacks on regional oil infrastructure, could trigger a global recession, characterized by stagflation – low growth accompanied by high inflation.

A “catastrophic” ripple effect has hit........

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