The US-Israel conflict with Iran has shifted to a US-Iran confrontation. Israel, the initiator, which pulled the US in, has been sidelined, and is focusing on Lebanon. Once the US joined, Benjamin Netanyahu stepped away, knowing that Donald Trump has little choice but to enforce an end state which maintains the US’s global reputation and standing. Now that Trump has entered the war, it is he who has to settle it on favourable terms, solely to save face.

By choosing Pakistan as the mediator, Trump effectively pushed Israel away from the negotiating table as both nations despise each other and neither recognizes the other. Islamabad has regularly accused Israel of genocide in Gaza. Israel will have to accept whatever Trump decides, similar to what Trump was attempting in Ukraine. Whether this was done deliberately is unknown, especially since both nations had coordinated their airstrikes. Just days before the first round of talks, Pakistan’s defence minister, Khawaja Asif tweeted, “Israel is evil and a curse for humanity,” adding, “I hope and pray that people who created this cancerous state on Palestinian land burn in hell.”

The tweet was deleted after global pressure, but conveyed Pakistan’s viewpoint. Iran had been preparing for years for a US-Israeli onslaught, the chances of it increasing with the return of Trump. In his first tenure he had pulled the US out of the hard-bargained Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and reimposed sanctions on Iran. He also authorized the killing of Major General Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force in January 2020 at Baghdad airport.

In June last year, Trump launched Operation Midnight Hammer in support of Israel against Iran’s nuclear facilities causing extensive damage. It was only a matter of time before they re-engaged Iran. Iran studied previous US campaigns and their impact on nations involved. The US has always believed in exploiting its powerful airpower in ‘shock and awe’ operations aimed at dismantling the adversaries’ command and control networks, targeting their leadership and forcing a breakdown in military response. The US has continued with the same approach basically because it remains an expeditionary power, operating far from their homeland.

This succeeded in Iraq and Libya but failed in Korea and Vietnam because the adversary was determined to survive and aware that at some stage the US would run out of patience. In Afghanistan, the US had the Northern Alliance, which it equipped to overrun the Taliban. Israel was attempting the same with the Kurds, but was checkmated by Iran. In America, people do not support body bags and are unwilling to pay the economic price for sustained wars. Trump’s ratings are dropping with increasing gasoline prices and with mid-term elections around the corner, it is he who is facing internal political pressure. Added is his concern of the 60-day limit of deploying US forces into hostilities without Congressional approval.

This expires around 1 May. Further extensions are unlikely. Iran adopted the decentralized Mosaic strategy which enabled its military to keep operating, despite breaks in command structures. It was also utilized to fill positions of those killed in airstrikes. There was no infighting or jockeying for power. This is what made the Israeli plan of regime change infructuous. It forced Trump to alter his end game from regime change to destruction of military power, never an ideal outcome. Iran understood its vulnerabilities and strengths, including geography, which is God gifted.

It could never match US military power but created the ability to hit where it hurts. It selected lightly protected US bases in the region and targets which could damage the global economy adding to the pressure on the US. Iranian strikes forced the US to evacuate troops from its bases in the Middle East to hotels and shift its undamaged air assets away. The US has yet to confirm losses of aircraft, UAVs and radars in the war. The US will have to reconsider its strategy of bases across the globe. Blocking the Strait of Hormuz added to pressure on Trump. The isolation of the US, even by his NATO and Asian allies, was a fall-out. Iran had also studied capabilities of US weaponry.

To protect its core strengths, missiles and drones, from US strikes, it created deep underground structures in mountains, where impact of precision bombing was minimum. Thus, after weeks of strikes, it still retains formidable missile and drone power capable of continuing the battle, a concern to Trump. The US-Israel combine had misjudged the Iranian population, as it did in most other wars. People would accept losses and suffering but never surrender to a Western power, as it happened in Vietnam and Korea. The US has built a reputation for exploiting natural resources of nations where it gains control, Iraq and Venezuela being recent examples.

Further, internal narratives built over the years by the Khamenei regime projected the US as the nation which imposed sanctions and attempted to browbeat Iran into surrender. Its support for Israel and joining it in attacks on Iran only alienated it further. Thus, Israel and MOSSAD’s strategy of an internal uprising, expecting a regime change, was doomed from the start. Trump and Hegseth, his war secretary, were forced to announce only success on destruction of military targets, which was expected. This is not a reason nations go to war. There are politico-military objectives set at the start.

Trump’s initial announcement of regime change was the basic objective which failed. What followed was just face-saving. The main reason was that the US failed to understand Iran’s resolve and indoctrination of its population, largely those linked to the regime, the IRGC and its militia, Basij (Organization for Mobilization of the Oppressed). While the US has imposed a blockade and claims that it will impact the Iranian economy and compel it to talk, it fails to mention a few aspects. Blockades and sanctions failed against Venezuela and Cuba, despite being in place for prolonged durations.

The daily cost of maintaining the blockade is more for the US than Iran. No nation will surrender based on a blockade. Iran can still challenge US vessels by drones and missiles in case they come close to the mainland. Finally, it is Trump seeking talks, not Iran. The US team cancelled its trip to Pakistan because Iran refused to participate. Talks will happen when Iran is ready, its terms met, and not based on Trump’s social media posts.

(The writer is a retired Major-General of the Indian Army.)

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