The Makkah Agreement is best understood as an ambitious strategic triangle with enormous potential but incomplete strategic convergence. And Iran sits precisely where those interests collide

The temptation to describe the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement as an “Islamic NATO” is understandable. Signed by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan on August 7, 2026, the agreement declares that an armed attack against one member will be regarded as an attack against all. It brings together Saudi Arabia’s financial and energy power, Türkiye’s formidable conventional military and defence-industrial capabilities, and Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent.

Yet the NATO analogy is premature. The greatest reason is Iran.

Iran represents the ultimate test of whether the Makkah Agreement can evolve from a strategically impressive partnership into a genuinely integrated collective-defence alliance. The problem is that the three members have fundamentally different relationships with Tehran.

For Saudi Arabia, Iran has traditionally been the principal regional strategic competitor. Riyadh remains concerned about Iranian missiles, drones, regional networks and the vulnerability of Gulf energy infrastructure. Türkiye’s relationship with Iran is far more complicated. Ankara and Tehran compete for influence across Syria, Iraq, the Caucasus and the wider Middle East, but also maintain diplomatic and economic ties. Türkiye has generally preferred managed rivalry rather than permanent confrontation, preserving its strategic flexibility. Pakistan’s position is more constrained still. It shares a border with Iran and........

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