One of the gravest threats to peace in the Middle East stems from Israel’s expansionist interpretation of the biblical “Land of Israel.” Unlike most modern states, Israel has never settled on internationally agreed permanent borders. Instead, influential strands within Israeli political and religious thought continue to invoke the biblical promise of territory stretching from the Nile to the Euphrates as the historical foundation of Israel’s territorial claims. To Israel’s critics, this ideology poses a direct challenge to the sovereignty of neighboring states because it treats territory beyond Israel’s internationally recognized boundaries as part of a historic Jewish homeland.

The Hamas attacks of 7 October 2023 provided the opportunity that advocates of this vision had long awaited. Israel launched its military campaign in Gaza claiming the right of self-defense, but the conflict soon acquired a much wider strategic dimension. Calls by senior Israeli politicians for permanent control of Gaza, proposals advocating the displacement of Palestinians, continued settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank, military advances into southern Lebanon and Syria, and sustained pressure on Iran convinced many observers that Israel was pursuing an expansionist agenda designed to reshape the political geography of the Middle East.

The strategy depended on one essential condition: a region consumed by conflict. If Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and the Gulf states became embroiled in a prolonged war, the Middle East would fragment into competing military camps. Regional diplomacy would collapse, governments would focus on their own survival, and Israel would find itself facing weakened neighbors with little capacity to resist new geopolitical realities. Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Iran were therefore not isolated theatres of conflict. They formed successive stages of a strategy that many critics believe was intended to create exactly such an environment.

Pakistan viewed these developments differently. Islamabad concluded........

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