Bab al-Mandeb: The next shock to global trade
The world does not need another closed maritime chokepoint. Yet that is precisely the danger now emerging around Bab al-Mandeb, the narrow passage connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and, through the Suez Canal, one of the principal arteries linking Asia with Europe. Recent Houthi advances along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including the capture of strategically important islands near the strait, have brought the question of maritime access back to the center of the regional crisis. For Pakistan, this should not be treated as a distant geopolitical story. Pakistan is heavily exposed to international energy prices and imported inputs. Any prolonged disruption in shipping would raise the cost of transporting goods, while higher oil prices would put further pressure on the import bill, inflation and the rupee. Exporters could also face higher freight and insurance costs at precisely the moment when competitiveness matters most. There is a second danger: complacency. The experience of the Red Sea crisis since 2023 demonstrated that shipping companies can change routes well before a waterway is physically closed. Security concerns alone can make a corridor commercially unattractive. The result is effectively a reduction in capacity, even when ships continue to sail through the waterway. That is why the international response should not be limited to naval deployments. The central objective must be to prevent a permanent militarization of one of the world’s most important commercial passages. Maritime security is necessary, but security without diplomacy can become an endless cycle of escalation. Recent US-Houthi contacts facilitated through Oman reportedly focused, among other things, on preserving freedom of navigation in the Red Sea. U.S. diplomats held a weekend meeting with Houthi representatives at the U.S. embassy in Oman amidst escalating tensions in the Red Sea. The discussions, facilitated by the Omani government, aimed to uphold a ceasefire between the U.S. and the Houthis and ensure the Bab al-Mandeb Strait remains open for navigation. While the U.S. ambassador did not attend, embassy diplomats represented the American side. The U.S. State........
