Regular readers of my column will know that for years I have argued that Australia runs a rather simple, but historically very effective, national business model:

We educate students. 

Mining. Agriculture. Tourism. International education. That’s how we make money, that’s why we enjoy globally very high standards of living.  

The four pillars of our economy aren’t particularly glamorous in a world obsessed with artificial intelligence, biotech and high-tech gadgets. But structurally, they are hard to displace.

The world will continue to need raw materials, food, holidays and degrees. 

With this in mind, let’s think through how the war in Iran might impact Australia.

Obviously, we will enter the territory of speculation here, but we can make educated guesses to guide our thinking.  

We can be pretty certain that the Middle East will be destabilised to a degree and that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will be severely limited for a while. 

We aren’t interested purely in the economic outcomes, but want to gain a more complex understanding.

I introduced Ken Wilber’s Four Quadrants in a previous column (have a read if you want to learn more) and also used the framework to explore what a “good migrant” might look like. 

The Four Quadrants model views the world through four complementary lenses: Mind, behaviour, culture and systems. 

Because geopolitics doesn’t just move oil prices. It moves people, psychology and systems. 

1. The Exterior-Collective: Systems and structures

This is where most commentators start: The hard economic facts. 

We must assume that the Iran war and its aftermath will disrupt energy flows, which will likely see the following developments: 

Oil and gas prices spike 

Shipping insurance premiums rise 

Freight routes lengthen and freight costs go up 

Air travel reroutes around unsafe airspace which leads to higher prices 

Inflation ticks up as the stuff we buy goes up in price 

Let’s see how Australia’s four economic pillars might be impacted by this: 

Global LNG and coal prices may rise. In the short-term, that might work in our favour. That’s the stuff we sell! We might well see export revenue go up, assuming........

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