Sussan Ley has announced that, after a fortnight’s farewell tour, she will step down as the member for Farrer.

This sets the stage for what will be one of the most interesting and unpredictable by-elections in Australian history.

Potentially at least four candidates could have a realistic chance of winning.

The by-election will be an early test of new Opposition Leader Angus Taylor’s popularity, and whether One Nation can translate strong performance in opinion polls into actual votes.

It will likely be held some time in April or May.

The independent challenge

At the 2025 election, Ley suffered a 9 per cent drop in her primary vote to 43 per cent. Independent Michelle Milthorpe, a local teacher, picked up 20 per cent of the vote.

Milthorpe won all the booths in Albury, the major town in Farrer (and the birthplace of the Liberal Party). But she lagged in the more remote areas.

This large electorate – four times the size of Belgium – is more difficult for a challenger to cover than a well resourced sitting member.

Milthorpe received almost two-thirds of the preferences from other candidates. This allowed her to narrow the primary vote gap. She finished with 44 per cent of the two-candidate preferred vote, compared to Ley’s 56 per cent.

She therefore needs a 6 per cent swing to win the seat.

This is a significant........

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