Once upon a time, it was assumed that progressive voters, even if they were gritting their teeth, would fall behind Labor to block the Coalition and One Nation from winning power.

It seems a lifetime ago, but it was only a little over a year ago. Labor’s last election campaign – like the one before that, and the one before that – was that only a vote for Labor would stop the Coalition.

As One Nation began rising in the polls, the message switched to only a vote for Labor would keep the Coalition-One Nation parties, the “throup-a-lition” if you will, from winning government.

One Nation is now a legitimate electoral force. The only question left in Victoria is whether or not the Coalition governs in its own right or with One Nation (which hasn’t stopped Opposition Leader Jess Wilson from adopting increasingly conservative positions, including banning phrases like “globalise the Intifada” but not phrases like “Islam is a cancer”, for reasons she doesn’t care to explain). In NSW, the major parties are already spooked and that election isn’t until March.

While the impact of One Nation has focused on what will happen to the Liberals in Australia’s most populous........

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