Kabul, Afghanistan, August 10, 2021, Old Taliban tanks and guns on the outskirts of Kabul city.

On January 19, 2026, when an ISIS-linked bombing at a Chinese restaurant in Kabul killed seven people, including a Chinese national, it received limited international attention. Yet, it brought into sharp relief the persistent threat posed by militant groups operating in Afghanistan.

That threat is no longer confined within Afghanistan’s borders. Neighboring states can attest, as cross-border attacks by groups either tolerated or inadequately controlled by the Taliban have escalated violence in Pakistan and Tajikistan, as well as against Chinese interests, turning what appears to be stability from afar into a growing regional security crisis.

During the republic, the number of madrassas (religious seminaries) registered with the Ministry of Education (MoE) was about 13,000, and the number of students was estimated at around 1.5 million; today, the number of madrassas has increased to approximately 23,000, and the number of students has doubled.

Still, Western capitals increasingly view Taliban rule as a moral problem rather than a direct security threat. They continue to pragmatically “engage” with the Taliban and provide weekly cash plates under the rubric of “humanitarian assistance” to the Taliban. 

While governments in Europe and North America routinely condemn the Taliban’s treatment of women and girls, Afghanistan is no longer widely viewed as a direct terrorist threat to the West. Since the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021, no major attacks in Europe or the United States have been conclusively traced to Afghanistan’s soil, an........

© The National Interest