Aerial view of Chernobyl nuclear reactors. Despite being a product of a specific Soviet-era design and regulatory environment, the 1986 disaster continues to shape public perceptions of nuclear power and energy policy around the world. (Shutterstock lux3000)

The Global Return to Nuclear Power Is U-Shaped

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Cognitive biases due to past nuclear accidents continue to shape energy policy long after the technologies themselves have changed.

The conversation on nuclear energy is back in international politics, but the global nuclear landscape reveals a striking paradox. More than 440 nuclear reactors operate in over 30 countries worldwide, providing roughly 9 percent of global electricity. Technologically advanced economies such as the United States, France, the United Kingdom, South Korea, and Japan are investing in new reactors, as are developing countries including Bangladesh, Egypt, and Uzbekistan. China alone has 37 reactors under construction, more than the rest of the world combined. The International Atomic Energy Agency is exploring advisory missions in countries like Rwanda and El Salvador. On the other side, a small group of wealthy countries has moved in the opposite direction. Germany completed its nuclear phasing-out and shut down its final reactor in April 2023. Belgium, Switzerland, Spain, and, most notably, Italy have chosen to abandon or restrict nuclear power, the latter holding two votes in the last twenty-four years. 

Why Global Nuclear Energy Adoption Follows a U-Shaped Development Curve

If you plot the world’s nuclear posture against any index of development, you do not get a straight line. You get a U-curve. Advanced economies at the top have either maintained nuclear power or returned to it in the name of energy security and industrial strategy. France is the clearest example: the 1974 Messmer Plan was fundamentally a project of strategic autonomy, and successive governments preserved the consensus. The United States and the United Kingdom took a longer route, losing the better part of a generation to political fallout before recalibrating around small........

© The National Interest