What Do Trump’s Strikes in Venezuela and Iran Mean for China?

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The Trump administration’s willingness to use military force to achieve political aims in Venezuela and Iran could shape its approach to China in the years to come.

In November 2024, we discussed the implications of President Donald Trump’s nomination of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and what it meant for the US national security strategies in Venezuela, Iran, and ultimately China.

We contended that the Trump administration would initially focus on Venezuela, employing both “covert and overt” operations to undermine the regime and promote the restoration of democracy.

We assessed that the second priority would encompass “an influence campaign for change in Iran through movements akin to ‘Women, Life, Freedom.’” 

Following the downfall of these two adversaries, we predicted “a broader and more nuanced crusade to influence the totalitarian behavior of [China’s] Communist Party by highlighting its human rights abuses.”

It is worth revisiting these predictions now because, with the launch of “Operation Absolute Resolve” against Venezuela on January 3 and “Operation Epic Fury” against Iran on February 28, at least two of them have come true.

Though both of us predicted the eventual collapse of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro through external and domestic pressures, the level of overt military force employed by the United States came as a surprise—suggesting that the Trump administration possesses a higher tolerance for risk than expected. Operation Absolute Resolve, the special operation aimed at ousting Maduro, was remarkable and showcased an exceptional and distinctly American capability.

This achievement in Venezuela, accomplished through military force, almost certainly affected the decision to use similar force to topple the Islamic Republic of........

© The National Interest