A photo illustration of US President Donald Trump with American and Iranian flags, circa February, 2026. Mohammed Ayoob believes President Trump’s threats on Iran are more likely to create an escalation spiral toward regional war. (Shutterstock/Hassen Mrad)

Why Donald Trump Should Exit the Iran Escalation Spiral Before It’s Too Late

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Any further escalation in the Iran War might mark a point of no return for the United States and the Middle East.

The Middle East may be approaching the most dangerous strategic moment since the 1973 Arab-Israeli War. For the first time, Iran, the United States, Israel, and several Gulf monarchies are all on the verge of becoming direct combatants in the same conflict—a development that could ignite not only a regional war but also a global economic crisis.

What initially appeared to be a confrontation between the United States, Israel, and Iran is rapidly evolving into a genuinely regional war. Iran’s attacks on US military facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia have increasingly drawn Gulf Arab states into direct military operations against Iran.

At the same time, President Donald Trump’s warnings that the United States intends to expand its target list to include Iran’s oil facilities, civilian infrastructure, power grid, and nuclear storage sites, coupled with the high probability of renewed Israeli participation in such strikes, have dramatically increased the risk that the conflict will spiral beyond anyone’s ability to control.

Although Trump has announced that he has called off  “the biggest attack since WWII” on Iran last Saturday for the moment because of pressure from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states who fear Iranian retaliation, he could reverse this decision at any time. The possibility of this happening should not be underestimated, especially since the Israelis have been goading him to do so.

The current conflict is no longer merely another episode in the decades-long shadow war between Iran, Israel, and the United States. It has become a contest involving nearly every major strategic actor in the Persian Gulf. The danger lies not simply in the growing number of combatants but in the interaction of several theaters of conflict that reinforce one another. 

Conflicts in the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, and potentially Iraq and Syria increasingly form a single strategic system in which escalation in one arena could rapidly spill over into others.........

© The National Interest