Protesters in Milan, Italy burn images of now assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on January 10, 2026. The death of Khamenei has raised questions about whether Iranian democracy is possible and what form it might take. (Shutterstock/pcruciatti)

Two Redlines for a Post-Islamic Republic Iran

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With the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the temptation is strong to redraw Iran’s borders or install a friendly despot. The US should resist it.

The US-Israel assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has brought the Islamic Republic of Iran to its most uncertain power transition since the revolution in 1979. Within hours of the announcement, maps began circulating in Washington and on exile channels: a federal Iran with autonomous Kurdish, Arab, Baluch, and Azeri regions; a confederal Iran drifting toward soft partition; even a patchwork of mini‑states carved from the Islamic Republic’s collapse. Now that the succession crisis is real, the temptation to redesign Iran from the outside will only grow. That temptation is exactly what the United States must resist.

With the regime’s command structure shaken and rival factions maneuvering for control, the worst American instinct would be to arrive with a ready‑made constitutional blueprint. A federal Iran here, a........

© The National Interest