An Israeli F-16 jet fighter lands at an air base in Andravida, Greece, on April 3, 2019. Israel and Turkey are poised for competition over Syria, Alexander Langlois and Yara Bataineh write. (Shutterstock/Flight Video and Photo)

Are Israel and Turkey Headed for a Cold War in Syria?

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Turkey sees a stable and revitalized Syria as a strategic buffer. Israel has other ideas.

For nearly 14 years, the Syrian people endured a devastating civil war before freeing their country from Bashar al-Assad’s rule in December 2024. This new chapter offers a window of hope, despite serious internal and external concerns about Syria’s post-war future. Syria’s transition is threatened, however, by an unfolding Israel-Turkey cold war, with Israeli efforts to keep Syria weak placing the country at the core of their rivalry.

Rather than allow Syria’s transition to unfold, Israel has sought to prevent the emergence of a strong and unified Syrian state. Days after Assad’s fall, Israel invaded areas beyond the 1974 disengagement line stemming from the Yom Kippur War. It has since occupied significant swathes of Syrian territory and decimated Syria’s remaining military capabilities. Israel has conducted regular incursions into Syrian villages, including one not far from the capital of Damascus. Israeli troops have killed and detained Syrian citizens. It also backs separatist militias in the Druze-majority Sweida in southern Syria.

The new Syria has faced many challenges, including sectarian violence involving the government in Syria’s coastal region and Sweida, and the failure of the government to hold perpetrators among its fighters accountable. Yet Israel’s operations are further intensifying these challenges. On August 18, Israel launched eight airstrikes on Abu al-Duhur, Syria’s second-largest military airport near northern Syria’s Aleppo. While Israeli strikes on Syrian Iran-backed groups became routine well before the civil war’s end, this attack stood out because the base sits roughly 43 miles from the Turkish border. 

Israel confirmed the attack the following day, claiming Syria planned to violate supposed security understandings by allowing Turkish troops to deploy to the base. Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani said Turkish officers visited the base for training, defending Syria’s sovereign right to establish military cooperation with any country.

That explanation is not unreasonable. Turkish bases exist across northern Syria and helped back the Syrian opposition in the war. Those efforts kept the central Syrian state weak during Assad’s rule—a clear benefit for Israel. Now, however, those bases bolster a new........

© The National Interest