European leaders, including French president Emmanuel Macron, Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, and Friedrich Merz, confer with President Donald Trump at the White House on August 18, 2025. European leaders are navigating toward an independent position in negotiations for ending the Ukraine War. (Shutterstock/Kaua209)

What European Strategic Autonomy Means for Ukraine Peace Negotiations

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If the United States pursues its own deal with Russia to end the Ukraine War, it cannot expect the Europeans to refrain from engaging with Russia on their own.

Many in Europe were—and possibly still are—terrified by the prospect of a deal reached between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Ukraine negotiated over their heads. Ironically, some in Moscow were eager for exactly such an arrangement: a deal would force both Ukrainians and Europeans to accept Washington’s terms. 

That scenario would have been plausible if the United States still assumed its Cold War role as Europe’s primary security guarantor. Yet the Trump administration’s demands that Europe spend more on defense, along with fundamental disagreements on key issues from trade to Greenland, have significantly reduced US leverage over Europe’s Ukraine policy. Even if Washington and Moscow were to strike a bilateral understanding, its implementation would depend heavily on European decisions on sanctions, reconstruction financing, force deployments, and arms transfers. Europe is not a secondary stakeholder in the Ukraine endgame but a structural constraint.

This simple reality has created a strategic dilemma for both Moscow and Washington, not only regarding Ukraine but also European security more broadly. While Moscow and the United States can be dismissive of European capabilities, they can no longer ignore European preferences in the short term or Europe’s increasing military capabilities over the medium to long term. 

Yet, engaging Europe presents challenges due to its fragmented decision-making structures and the dominance of hawkish positions on Russia among key European states. Both the United States and Russia fear that including Europeans would complicate already complex negotiations. Moreover, both capitals would prefer to deal with spoilers later rather than let them prevent a deal from emerging. 

With the increased European spending and the expected improvements in its deterrence, the solution to this dilemma is more European confidence in their capabilities and engagement in dialogue with Washington, first to reconcile views on Ukraine and post-war Europe, in parallel with Russia, on the parameters of post-war European security.

Why Europe Is Rethinking Its Russia Strategy 

Recent calls from French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to open direct communication with Russia signal a potential shift from the old assumption of Russia’s total defeat to a possible dual-track approach: assured deterrence combined with cautious dialogue. At the Munich Security Conference this month, Macron articulated this vision clearly: Europe must increase pressure on Russia, prepare for a post-war European security architecture, and establish direct contacts with Moscow to explore what is genuinely possible in the long term and manage escalation risks in the short term.

Meloni echoed this position in January 2026, stating, “I think the time has come for Europe to talk to Russia. Because if Europe decides to participate in this phase of the ongoing negotiations, talking with only one of the parties involved…the positive contribution it can make is limited.”

On the face of it, this sounds encouraging, and Moscow would likely welcome direct dialogue. At the same time, Washington would not object—particularly given Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby’s statements at Munich about Europe assuming........

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