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The Folly of Netanyahu’s War Against Iran

A minority view from Tel Aviv.

Can we add Netanyahu’s war against Iran to Barbara Tuchman’s list of unwise and counterproductive policy decisions detailed in her book The March of Folly?

Just a little more than a week before the beginning of the latest war, I was one of three Israelis who participated in the public launch of an Iranian-Israeli joint dialogue forum under the title “We Are Not Our Regimes,” hosted by the Bruno Kreisky Forum for International Dialogue in Vienna. The Iranians were all republicans (not the MAGA variety, but supporters of an Iranian republic) who are opposed both to the Islamist Ayatollah regime and to the monarchists represented by Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last Shah of Iran. Since it is impossible under the current circumstances for Iranians who live in Iran to participate in such a joint initiative, the Iranians who participated all live in Europe or the United States, though they all have family and friends who they are in contact with in Iran itself. The Israelis are all opposed to our current extremist, messianic government, led by Prime Minister Netanyahu.

Although both the Iranians and the Israelis would like to see regime change in Iran, they all agreed that a war initiated by external forces was not and could not be the way to achieve that goal (and regime change in both Israel and the United States would also be very welcomed by them). The Iranians emphasized that a desired regime change could only come from an internal struggle by the Iranian people. They listed two possibilities for such a development. One was the fact that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei was almost 87, and not in good health. It was possible that his successor would be more pragmatic and flexible, creating an opening for a more liberal regime in Iran. The second possibility was a renewed nuclear deal with the US, which would lead to a reduction of sanctions—a key to the development of a potent middle class in Iran that would be the driving force behind a successful popular demand for change in the regime.

Instead, what we got was a renewed war against Iran, this time a joint Israeli-American initiative. Netanyahu apparently convinced Trump that such an attack would galvanize the Iranian people to rise up and demand regime change. As Trump said after the war started, “Now is the time to seize control of your destiny.… America is backing you.… Be brave, be bold.… take back your country. America is with you.”

Well, it hasn’t quite happened that way. Instead, after Ayatollah Khamenei was assassinated by the Israelis, his son Mojtaba Khamenei was chosen to be his successor—the candidate of the extremist Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who have clamped down on any potential popular protest. His father didn’t even designate him as one of his three potential successors! One of the designated potential successors was former Iranian president Hassan Rouhani, the reformist who negotiated the effective JCPOA (Iranian nuclear deal) with President Obama and who, together with his foreign minister, Mohammad Zarif, made overtures to the West. They even made a hint toward the Jews and, by implication, Israel—a greeting on the Rosh Hashanah holiday. Such an appointment as the successor to Khamenei could have led to the realization of both the possibility of a more pragmatic and flexible supreme leader and a nuclear deal that would have led to sanctions relief and the strengthening of key middle-class elements in Iranian society.

And to make matters worse, Israel then assassinated........

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