It was obvious. It was coming. It was inevitable. As American armadas gathered near Iranian waters and threats intensified, the Middle East could only watch with crossed fingers. Regional experts clung to hope: this was coercive diplomacy, not a prelude to war. This was the danger President Donald Trump had warned of hours before Israel's deadliest-ever missile attack on Iran.

Experts had pinned hopes on Geneva talks between American intermediaries and Iran. According to FM Araghchi, an agreement was within reach. But before any announcement could be made, Israel attacked while keeping its powder dry.

Why was Iran struck just as a successor to the defunct JCPOA was about to be concluded? Conversely, if the military option was already on the table, why the Geneva parleys? This contradiction exposes a bitter truth: for Iran, the negotiation table has become an antechamber to the battlefield. Having been bombed before while being coaxed to negotiate, Iran's scepticism was earned. So, when the latest strikes came, the response was not a matter of if, but of when.

Iran's missiles triggered a coordinated assault on nearly every US base in the region and on Israel itself. Yet even Tehran was not prepared for the unthinkable: an attack that martyred its Supreme Leader and his family. This was the ultimate red line. Hypersonic projectiles, held in reserve for precisely such an eventuality, were unleashed.

In the aftermath, Gulf states rightly protested the breach of their territorial integrity after Iranian strikes on US bases within their borders. But to Tehran, their protest rings hollow against years of Iranian warnings. International law experts may construe Iran's actions as a violation of sovereignty. Yet does anyone hold the same regard for international bodies when the transgressors are the powerful?

The emergency UN Security Council meeting exemplified this hypocrisy. It debated whether to call the situation a 'threat to international peace' or merely 'the situation in the Middle East', rather than halting the missile attacks. The theatre of diplomacy continued, but the play was a tragedy.

Amid this diplomatic theatre, Washington delivered its ultimatum. President Trump gave Iran a choice: surrender your nuclear and missile programmes, or face death. When both paths lead to the same end, the choice is an illusion. Tehran did not bother responding. Washington then laid bare a sweeping charge sheet against Iran before declaring 'enough was enough.' This litany forces a chilling conclusion: the attacks were never about neutralising a nuclear programme. They were about destroying the country itself, in response to all the 'crimes' that Iran has committed since 1979.

'Annihilation' was the word used. The entire Iranian Navy was the target. The only exception was the Iranian people, seemingly gifted a chance to 'liberate' themselves by seizing Tehran. They did not take the bait. As they mourned a leader of thirty-six years, they delivered their own verdict. Whatever their internal grievances, they would not be instruments of foreign-powered overthrow.

Those who draw parallels between the fiction of Iraq's WMDs and Iran's nuclear programme miss the point. Whether the threat is real is immaterial. Propaganda clears the path for every war; truth is always its first casualty. Since when are wars fought through moral arguments? Ultimately, power prevails among nations. Those who believed other powers would offer more than lip service, or that the UN Secretary-General holds authority over the powerful, have been sadly mistaken — once again. This time, he could not go beyond declaring that the two-state solution was being undermined.

The fact remains: diplomacy is pursued only when it suits the powerful, either after their objectives are met, or when the aggressor has been struck so hard it can barely breathe. This harsh calculus applies not only to Iran but to its neighbours as well. The UAE warned Iran that it stands alone should it continue hostilities against its neighbours. But was Iran not already standing utterly alone when its nuclear installations were first attacked? Is it not standing alone now?

Perhaps neighbours should reconsider hosting foreign military bases. These installations, ostensibly for host countries' security, cost billions annually. The attack on Iran proves they do not guarantee security; instead, they offer only entanglement. They transform host nations into launchpads, making them targets in wars not of their making.

History's great strategists understood this dynamic long before modern missiles flew. Sun Tzu wrote: ‘The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.’ The United States and Israel attempted to subdue Iran through pressure. When that failed, they resorted to war. Clausewitz observed: ‘War is a continuation of political commerce by other means.’ The attack was not a breakdown of diplomacy. It was diplomacy by other means, a clear signal that for the powerful, negotiation is merely another phase of conflict.

The lesson is now proven beyond doubt: each nation must carry its own cross. No alliance guarantees protection when the powerful decide their interests no longer align with yours. No multilateral forum answers to moral arguments; they respond to those who pay in currency and might. Every nation that has believed itself sheltered by a larger power's embrace now watches from the periphery. The question is not whether the embrace will be withdrawn. The question is when.

The bells toll: Either you are with us or else.

Iran discovers that over four decades of revolutionary continuity meant nothing to powers that had decided on annihilation. The Gulf states are discovering that billions in military purchases mean nothing when missiles fly. The entire region has been forced to confront a sobering truth: the United Nations carries little weight when a permanent member has its own objectives to pursue. The absence of any serious move to impeach President Trump signals that the American people still stand behind their President’s vision of making America great again. So, what truly matters in the end? Only what you can defend. Only what you can decide for yourself.

This is not a call for isolation. Nations need friends. But there is a profound difference between a friend and a protector. A friend walks beside you, as the United States walks with Israel. A protector walks ahead, until one day, they do not. And when the lightning strikes, you may find yourself standing exactly where Iran stands today: utterly, perilously, and irrevocably alone.

Najm us SaqibThe writer is a former Ambassador of Pakistan and author of eight books in three languages. He can be reached at najmussaqib1960@msn.com

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