An expert on US affairs posed a provocative question the other day. The ongoing war in the region will eventually end, he acknowledged. But then he asked: Who will rectify President Donald Trump's mistakes? As usual, the expert showed little interest in answers. Instead, he first made a prediction about Trump's future, speaking at length about how the President will soon be impeached, well before the November midterm elections. A brief discussion ensued, and that exchange forms the basis of this article.

First, the prediction.

A prediction is a forecast or an informed guess about a future event. Mention prediction, and Nostradamus inevitably comes to mind. His ‘predictions’ consist of nearly 1,000 vague, untranslatable phrases devoid of specific names or dates. He used terms like ‘the Great Man’ or ‘the young Hero’, labels flexible enough to fit almost anyone. Researchers have concluded that his supposed ‘hits’ result from vague language and post-event reinterpretation, not genuine foresight. No formal tally of true versus false predictions exists. Yet for centuries to come, whenever the word ‘prediction’ is uttered, Nostradamus will come to mind. Why? Simply because perception is stronger than reality. The same principle often applies to experts on foreign policy.

International relations severely limit predictions. No model can reliably forecast geopolitical events like the ongoing Middle East war due to the sheer complexity........

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