In the aftermath of Armenia's elections in June, much international media coverage framed the result as a decisive victory for pro-Western forces and a development likely to solidify Yerevan's ongoing pivot away from Moscow.

Yet, despite the victory of the European-aligned governing Civil Contract party, such a triumphalist tone fails to capture the scale of the leverage Russia continues to hold over Armenia. Since April, Moscow has rolled out a number of trade restrictions seemingly designed to economically punish the country for its growing ties to Europe.

One lever of Kremlin influence may prove to be the most impactful in the coming months: gas. Nearly all of Armenia's natural gas supply — 82% last year — is provided by Russia. Even Iranian gas, the only other supply available to Armenians currently, is transported via a pipeline operated by Gazprom. 

Russian officials have said that if Armenia continues its trajectory of strengthening ties with the European Union, Moscow may reconsider the preferential pricing Yerevan receives from Russia’s gas juggernaut. For the time being, costs remain stable. But Gazprom is scheduled to reconsider its pricing for Armenia this January.

In the meantime, this month Russia announced that it would be suspending gas supplies between September 15 and 25. While officials cited maintenance as the reason for the shortfall, the timing of the announcement was read as a shot across the bow for Armenia. 

Armenia’s Central Bank has warned of the potential fallout of a spike in gas prices, saying such a move would cause an "egregious economic shock" that could trigger broader inflation throughout the economy. 

The degradation in Armenia-Russia relations dates to Moscow's inaction over Azerbaijani offensives in 2020, 2022, and 2023. In their aftermath, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has sought to deepen political,........

© The Moscow Times