This article was adapted from the Threatologist newsletter.

Russia is menacing Europe. It is testing reactions and resolve, spreading instability and chipping away at the principles of collective defense. The only appropriate response is to acknowledge the seriousness of the threat and ramp up preparedness and defense spending — and to show Russia that the West will not shy away from confrontation.

This, at least, is the narrative that dominates the media and security landscape. There is strong justification for it: there is ample evidence of Russia pushing the boundaries and engaging in nefarious activities, and Russia has long held a low — and, until the war in Ukraine, entirely justifiable — opinion of the West’s resolve. But to what degree does the nature of the threat align with the perception?

Browse through any serious newspaper and it likely won’t be long before you encounter a headline warning of the threat that Russia poses to Western security. Over the last two weeks, the Estonian foreign minister has cautioned that Russia is escalating a campaign of sabotage and arson; the German chancellor has spoken about preparing for Russian hybrid attacks and the Danish intelligence services have claimed that Russia could be readying a limited military operation against a NATO country. Pick a different week and the details will change, but the underlying message will likely remain the same.

This rhetoric has a long history. For some commentators, there has always been a threat from the East and the transition from the U.S.S.R. to the Russian Federation meant little more than a change of clothes. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was, therefore, little more than a vindication of long-held beliefs. Historian Mark Smith penned an entire book on what he termed “The Russia Anxiety,” which he characterized as “an historic syndrome that alternates between three sets of symptoms: fear of Russia, disregard of Russia and contempt for Russia.”

Over the years, Russia has provided ample material to fuel these concerns: from a British perspective, the poisonings of........

© The Moscow Times